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August 5th, 2020 Wisconsin Polling Update

New Wisconsin Surveys Released

In the last week, CNBC/Change Research and Gravis both released polls of Wisconsin voter attitudes on the status of the presidential race as well as public opinion on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Marquette University Law School had intended to release their most recent survey today, August 5th, but had to push their release date back to August 11th because of lack of availability at the call center they traditionally use. (link to release)
Below is a summary of all publicly released 2020 polls in Wisconsin and key findings in the CNBC/Change Research and Gravis polls.

CNBC/Change Research Battleground Poll

CNBC/Change Research Poll Battleground:

CNBC/Change Research conducted a Battleground Poll in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: July 24-26, 2020. This was the 10th wave of their battleground survey.

According to their release, former Vice President Joe Biden leads by 9 points in their national ballot (51% to 42%) and by 3 points in the combined battleground states (48% to 45%). Biden has the largest lead in Wisconsin among the battleground states at +5%, 48% to 43%, and the narrowest lead in Arizona and Pennsylvania at +2%, 47% to 45% and 48% to 46% respectively.

Of note in the Wisconsin results were the following:

Presidential race:
  • According to their latest survey, former Vice President Biden leads President Trump 48% t0 43%, (Biden +5%). Compared to previous surveys;
  • July 10-12; 48% Biden-42% Trump (Biden +6%)
  • June 26-28; 51% Biden-43% Trump (Biden +8%)
  • June 12-14; 48% Biden-44% Trump (Biden +4%)
  • May 29-31; 45% Biden-45% Trump (Tied)

Gov. Evers Approval:
  • In their latest survey, Change Research found that Governor Evers approval of how he was handling the coronavirus was 53% Approve-47% Disapprove. 27% Strongly Approve and 34% Strongly Disapprove.
  • July 10-12; 55% Approve-44% Disapprove (32% Strongly Approve-34% Strongly Disapprove)

Other Wisconsin Data of note:
  • According to the survey when asked about the precautions individuals are taking in response to the coronavirus, 82% of respondents in the battleground states said they were wearing masks in public. Making it the second most popular precaution to hand washing (90%). According Change Research Wisconsin ranked the lowest in mask wearing, with 67% of Wisconsin respondents saying they wear masks in public. (This was pre-statewide mask mandate)
  • When respondents were asked whether they or someone they know had contracted COVID-19, nationally 64% had contracted or knew someone, in Wisconsin it was 59%.

Link to Battleground Survey Toplines

Link to National Toplines

Gravis Marketing

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm conducted a survey 796 registered, likely voters in Wisconsin on July 22nd. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.5%.

Presidential race:
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 8 points in their survey (+8%), Biden 50% and Trump 42%.

Trump Approval:
  • In the Gravis survey, President Trump has a net -3% job approval in Wisconsin, 46% Approve-49% Disapprove. (37% Strongly Approve-43% Strongly Disapprove)

Governor Evers Approval:
  • Governor Evers enjoys a net 15% positive job approval, 55% approve of the job he is doing, 40% disapprove. (29% Strongly Approve-25% Strongly Disapprove)

US Senators:
  • Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin: 51% Approve-41% Disapprove (+10%)
  • Republican Sen. Ron Johnson: 45% Approve-43% Disapprove (+2%)

Views on Coronavirus:
  • 47% of respondents support schools reopening for in-person instruction this fall, 34% oppose.
  • 45% believe reopening school will lead to an increase in COVID-19 related deaths, 36% do not.

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